Hidden Edges
Stats that stay invisible
Ten data-scientist views computed from the raw fight record. Not totals — signal.
Does the cage actually matter on debut?
First-round output in a fighter's UFC debut, second fight, and post-layoff (>540 days) return — vs. their normal-fight baseline.
| Context | R1 samples | Avg R1 landed | Avg R1 attempts | R1 acc % | Avg KD |
|---|
Damage absorbed, not fights fought
Two 22-5 records aren't equal. Total UFC rounds, estimated max minutes inside the cage, and total significant strikes absorbed. Top 25 by absorbed damage.
| Fighter | Fights | Rounds | Est. min | Sig absorbed | Per round | KDs taken |
|---|
Rock-paper-scissors on the feet
Per-style win rate from the K-means style clusters. Which archetype beats which.
| Style A | vs Style B | Fights | A wins | A win % |
|---|
The judges who see fights differently
Per-judge average disagreement with the other two on a round, and total outlier rounds scored. The bigger the number, the more idiosyncratic the eye.
| Judge | Rounds | Avg gap | Outliers |
|---|
What missing weight actually costs
UFC win rate split by whether the fighter made weight, missed weight, or had no weigh-in record.
| Status | Fights | Wins | Win % |
|---|
Fighters the market keeps underrating
Win rate vs. market-implied probability at close, min. 5 priced fights. Positive = the books keep getting them wrong. Top 15 by CLV.
| Fighter | Fights | Win % | Market % | CLV |
|---|
The fighters who collapse in round 3
Ratio of round-3 strike attempts vs. round-1, across fights that reached round 3. Bottom 25 = the steepest drop-off. 100% = same output. Below 70% = the cliff.
| Fighter | 3R fights | R1 attempts | R3 attempts | R3 ÷ R1 |
|---|
Wins that were almost losses
Per fighter (min. 5 wins): share of wins that were finishes vs. unanimous vs. split/majority. High close-decision % = a record that's softer than it looks.
| Fighter | Wins | Finish | Unan | Split | Maj | Finish % | Close % |
|---|
Strength of schedule across promotions
Average tier (S=1, A=2, B=3, C=4) of the promotions a fighter has competed in across their full career. Lower = tougher resume.
| Fighter | Career | Avg tier | S/A fights | Top tier % |
|---|
The referees who let it go longest
For TKO/KO stoppages: average significant strikes landed by the winner before the fight was waved off, per referee (min. 10 stoppages).
| Referee | Stoppages | Avg strikes | Avg round |
|---|