Analytics
Inferential and predictive analyses computed from the raw fight data. Grouped by question, not by page count.
Ten edges hiding in the data
Octagon jitters, cage mileage, cardio cliffs, judge fingerprints, weight-cut tax, referee thresholds — signal most stats sites never surface.
Predictions
Win Probability
Empirical win rate for any per-round stat differential. Marginal effect of KD, strikes, takedowns, control.
Method Classifier
KO / submission / decision split for any fight pace — bucketed by knockdowns, strike volume, takedowns, sub attempts.
Finish Curves
Kaplan-Meier survival per round. KO and submission hazards by division.
Upset Detector
Biggest UFC upsets ranked by closing-line implied probability. Dog payouts, surprise score, method.
Betting Markets
Market Edge
CLV per fighter, upset rate by odds bucket, sharp-money line-movement signal.
CLV Tracker
Which fights moved most from open to close, which side took money, and how often steamed sides won.
CLV by Fighter
Per-fighter closing-line value — who beat market-implied win rate and who books overrated.
Pick ROI Leaderboard
Every graded pick as a 1-unit bet at the closing line. Sortable by ROI, edge, model probability — full receipts.
Model Record
Every locked pick, auto-graded against actual results. Brier score, reliability curve, per-pick share cards.
Judging
Skill & Legacy
Style & Matchups
Style Clusters
K-means archetypes from per-round striking & grappling footprint. Strikers, pressure boxers, wrestle-grinders, sub grapplers.
Network
Common opponents between any two fighters. Camp leaderboard by win rate.
Method Profile
Per-fighter KO/SUB/DEC mix and finish-rate ranking by division.
Defense Metrics
Strike defense %, takedown defense %, strikes & knockdowns absorbed, control conceded — what opponents did to each fighter.
Physical & Aging
Aging Trajectory
Win rate, strike volume, knockdown rate, finish mix at every age 18–50. Peak windows + decay slope.
Physical Edge
Missed-weight penalty, reach-advantage ROI, win rate by age.
Weight Cuts
Performance penalty for fighters who miss weight at the scale.
Round Dynamics
Damage curves R1–R5, sub density, control-time bias, comeback kings, pace effect.
Era & Meta
Era Trends
YoY shifts in KO rate, decision rate, striking volume, ranking volatility.
Finish Curves
Survival curves and finish-method mix by round and weight class.
Meta Signals
Resume strength of pre-UFC wins, cross-promotion champions, bonus → popularity flywheel.
Popularity
Wikipedia pageview ranking and sponsorship density per fighter.