How it works
Data in,
probabilities out.
No hot takes, no narratives. Just what the data says — with the receipts.
What we collect
Every UFC bout since 1993 with round-by-round striking and grappling stats. Sherdog records for every fighter across every major promotion. Live opening and closing prices from a panel of sportsbooks. Weigh-in misses, judging scorecards, and post-fight bonuses.
Refreshed daily for upcoming cards, weekly for historical fixes, and within the hour for new results.
How the model works
We start from each fighter's style profile — striking volume and accuracy, takedown rate, grappling control, durability — then adjust for opponent strength, layoff, weight class, and recent form. Out comes a probability for each side.
We compare that to the devigged market price to compute edge. We track every pick we publish so the hit rate, Brier score, and CLV on the public scoreboard are the actual results, not cherry-picked.
How to read a pick
Each card on /picks shows the model's win probability, the market's implied probability, and the gap between them — the edge. Bigger isn't automatically better: a 12% edge on a long shot is more fragile than a 4% edge on a -130 favorite.
Confidence is independent of edge. It reflects how much data the model had to work with — opponent caliber, sample size, layoff, weight cut. Low confidence + high edge usually means "interesting, but you'd want to know more."