The fight game
deserves
honest math.
MMA analytics on the internet today is one of three things: a sportsbook funnel, a tipster paywall, or a vibe. We are none of those.
No tipster subscription
We don't sell picks. Every model output on this site — every win probability, every edge call, every method projection — is free, public, and time-stamped. If we are right, you can see it. If we are wrong, you can see that too.
No sportsbook affiliate
We take no money from FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Stake, or anyone who would rather you place the bet than think about it. The odds you see on this site are there so we can grade ourselves against the closing line — not so we can route you to a deposit form.
No black box
The Elo update equations are written out on the Methodology page. The feature list is published. Every data source is cited with row counts pulled live from the database. If we changed the model, the changelog says when and what.
The market is the scoreboard
Anyone can post a hot take after a fight. The only honest validation of an MMA model is whether it beats the closing line over a meaningful sample. That number lives on the Model Record page. It updates automatically. We don't curate which picks count.
The receipts stay public, win or lose
Every locked pick is permanent. We don't quietly delete bad calls or backdate edits. The full ROI history, including the months the model lost money, is on the Pick ROI leaderboard.
Decision support, never advice
The model is wrong all the time. Anyone who tells you their MMA model is right most of the time is selling something. The only claim we make is: it is wrong less often than the books on a measurable set of fights, and only sometimes. What you do with that is your call.