Predictive
Win probability
Empirical, not modeled. Every UFC round on record contributes one observation. Pick a stat differential — the page returns the historical win rate of fighters who matched it.
Round outcome by stat differential
Adjust the differentials. Lookup is computed against 0 rounds.
Win rate by knockdown differential
A single knockdown swings the round dramatically. Two flips it almost entirely.
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Win rate by sig-strike differential
Monotonic from −20 to +20. The market price of every additional landed strike is non-trivial.
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Win rate by takedown differential
Out-grappling a round wins ~70% of the time, even ignoring all other variables.
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Win rate by control differential
Clinch + ground strikes landed — a stand-in for cage/ground control. Strong, near-symmetric signal.
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Method: every round on record contributes two observations (one per fighter). Stat differentials are bucketed, then the win rate within each bucket is the empirical probability. No regression assumed — pure conditional frequency. Buckets with fewer than ~50 rounds are noisy and shown for completeness only.