Market Edge
Where the lines are wrong
Closing-line value, underdog premiums by bucket, and the sharp-money signal.
09 · CLV
Fighters the market keeps misjudging
Win rate vs. market-implied probability at close. Positive CLV = the market keeps underrating them. Top 30 by CLV, min. 5 priced fights.
| Fighter | Fights | Win % | Market % | CLV |
|---|
10 · Underdog Premium
Upset rate by odds bucket
How often each dog bucket actually wins. Compare to the implied probability inside the bucket to see if dogs at +200 win 33% (fair) or 40% (live edge).
| Bucket | Fights | Dog wins | Upset rate |
|---|
11 · Sharp Money
When lines move toward the dog
Fights where the underdog's price tightened by 30+ points from open to close — a 'sharp money' signal. Do those dogs actually win more often?
No data.